Fluminense came from behind to stun Palmeiras 3-2 in a classic Brasileirão back-and-forth that left our pre-match prediction in the dust. Gomez gave Palmeiras the perfect start with a tenth-minute opener, assisted by Piquerez, but Hulk levelled things up before half-time with a finish set up by Canobbio. The match stayed tight until the eighty-second minute, when Mauricio restored Palmeiras' lead from Lopez's pass—but Fluminense weren't done. Serna grabbed an equaliser just three minutes later, and in the dying moments of injury time, Cano sealed it with a header from Martinelli's delivery.

Our model leaned towards a Palmeiras win at 42% and backed a tight scoreline—we predicted 0-1 and flagged under 2.5 goals as a likely outcome. That didn't age well. The pre-match data suggested Palmeiras would dominate possession and chances (xG split favoured them 1.64 to 0.7), and that lean showed in the early stages when Gomez struck first. But Fluminense's attacking threat came alive when it mattered, and they rattled in three goals to turn the tie on its head. It's a reminder that expected goals paint a useful picture before kickoff—they don't dictate what actually happens on the pitch.

We got this one wrong, plain and simple. Palmeiras started stronger and led twice, yet Fluminense's finishing and resilience in the final ten minutes proved too much. On another night that Palmeiras performance might've held up; this time, it didn't.