AZ Alkmaar's title credentials were on full display in Sittard, but not quite in the way the script suggested. Our model had pencilled in a 1-2 scoreline, and while the visitor's win proved spot on, the actual execution looked rather different. Fortuna Sittard's evening unravelled almost immediately when Ó. Romeny received a red card in the fifth minute, leaving the home side chasing the game with ten men from the start. That early disadvantage proved insurmountable. AZ waited until the 58th minute to break the deadlock through Hornkamp, then sealed it in the dying seconds when Hornkamp netted again, this time assisted by A. Oufkir, for a 2-0 final score.

Before kickoff, our model's most likely outcome sat at 47% for an AZ victory, so the visitor's win landed squarely within expectations. However, we'd weighted a higher-scoring affair — the prediction for exactly 1-2 spoke to both sides getting on the board. The early red card fundamentally reshaped the match's shape. AZ's advantage in form and defensive solidity, which the pre-match analysis had flagged, hardly needed underlining once Fortuna dropped to ten men. The model had anticipated a competitive fixture with chances for both teams; instead, numerical superiority allowed AZ to control the tempo and pick their moment rather than force one.

It's a reminder that tight pre-match probability gaps — and the narrow win margins they often imply — can unfold in multiple ways. The result fitted the prediction, but the road to get there didn't quite follow the expected path. That's football.