France vs England

England pulled off a commanding 6-4 win over France in a World Cup knockout that swung wildly in the opening half. Rice got things rolling early with a third-minute opener, then added an assist for Konsa's eighteenth-minute header to give England a two-goal cushion. Saka made it three before the break—first from a Rashford cutback on 37 minutes, then another finish from Eze's pass deep into stoppage time. France looked beaten, but Mbappé pulled one back just after the restart and things tightened up fast. Barcola made it 3-2 on 54 minutes, and Mbappé's second goal five minutes later had the sides level again. Saka converted a penalty on 87 to restore England's lead, and though Dembélé grabbed one back in the closing moments, Bellingham sealed it right at the end.

Our model went into this one leaning toward France at 51 per cent, with England at just 28 per cent—and we predicted a tighter 2-1 finish. The match didn't play out that way. Instead of a cagey, low-scoring affair, we got an end-to-end spectacle that blew past our expectations on both volume and who'd come out on top. We'd flagged England's attacking threat and both teams' tendency to find the back of the net, but the scale of the offensive display and England's sheer control in the first half caught the model short. It's a clean miss—France's defensive shape crumbled early, and England's forward play was too sharp. Sometimes a team just has the better day, and that's exactly what happened here.