📊 Recent Form
Frosinone
Venezia
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Frosinone at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 27% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Frosinone at 45% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 35% — a gap in our favour of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 49/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Frosinone saw off Venezia 3-2 in a match that swung both ways before settling decisively in the home side's favour. Raimondo struck twice in the opening half—first in the 21st minute from Oyono's assist, then again on 39 minutes after good work from Masini—to hand Frosinone a commanding platform. But Venezia, for all their struggles, hit back with real intent in the second half. Yeboah pulled one back on 66 minutes through Busio's pass, and just eight minutes later Sagrado levelled it after a setup from Hainaut. The momentum looked with the visitors, but Frosinone weren't done. Kvernadze restored the hosts' lead with a clinical finish on 83 minutes to settle the tie.
Our model backed Frosinone to win at 45% probability with a predicted scoreline of 2-1, so we got the result direction right but underestimated the goalmouth action. We'd flagged Venezia's poor away record and expected a tight, controlled affair shaped by Frosinone's solid home form. What actually unfolded was far more open—both teams found the back of the net multiple times, and the match stayed competitive right through to the end. The underlying factors we'd noted before kickoff held up reasonably well: Frosinone's home advantage and Venezia's away struggles remained visible, but the execution on the pitch was messier and more goal-heavy than a 2-1 scoreline would suggest. It's a reminder that even in a well-reasoned forecast, small margins in attack and defence can tip the scoreline higher than expected.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Win Value | 7/4 2.74 | 35% | 45% | +10% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.44 | 28% | 27% | -1% |
| Venezia Win | 13/8 2.60 | 37% | 28% | -9% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Venezia in relegation danger (P18/20)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Frosinone solid at home (avg 1.57 scored, 0.73 conceded); Venezia poor away (LLDLW, 1.75 conceded avg)
H2H: Neutral dominance over 8 games, avg 2.6 goals, frequent competitive scorelines
Stakes: Venezia in relegation danger (P18) — motivated but depleted; Frosinone mid-table normal motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H is evenly contested over 8 meetings (Frosinone 4W, 1D, Venezia 3W) with an average of 2.6 goals per game — competitive, open matches are the norm between these sides.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
