Bayer Leverkusen came from behind to edge FSV Mainz 05 in a seven-goal thriller, winning 4-3 in a match that swung wildly across the 90 minutes. Leverkusen got off to a flying start with goals from Andrich in the fifth minute and Schick — assisted by García — nine minutes later, but Mainz refused to fold. Caci levelled things up with two goals either side of the break, the first in the 33rd minute and the second on 42 minutes after an assist from Amiri, dragging his side level at 2-2 by halftime. Leverkusen pulled clear again through Quansah's header on 55 minutes before Diaby added a fourth courtesy of Moreira's assist on 65. Mainz kept fighting and got a late consolation through Hollerbach in the 90+2nd minute, but it wasn't enough to force an unlikely draw.

Our model had predicted a 1-2 scoreline favouring Leverkusen, backing the visitors with a 46% win probability — a comfortable lean rather than a confident forecast. The result direction was spot on, but the actual scoreline blew past our expectations on both ends. We'd flagged the head-to-head record heavily in Leverkusen's favour and noted their tight defensive shape; we'd also picked out Mainz's home form and the likelihood of goals at both ends. The match did deliver that offensive intensity and more, but our model underestimated just how open the contest would be and how the momentum could swing so dramatically through the middle stages. Leverkusen's push for the top four showed up in the intensity of their opening salvos, yet Mainz's home resilience meant they clawed back into the contest. It was a proper back-and-forth affair that neither team's pre-match profile quite captured.