Eintracht Frankfurt came from behind to run out comfortable winners at Mainz, sealing a 3-1 victory that saw them overturn an early deficit and control the second half. Can Yilmaz Uzun got Frankfurt off to a flying start in the ninth minute, assisted by Jonathan Burkardt, but Mainz hauled themselves level from the penalty spot when Nadiem Amiri converted just before halftime. Frankfurt regained the upper hand almost immediately after the break when Burkardt scored at 45+1, then Uzun added his second of the evening at 60 with the assist from Mario Götze. Phillip Tietz grabbed a late consolation for Mainz in the 89th minute, assisted by Otto Ruoppi, but the damage was already done.

Our model leaned toward a Frankfurt win at 33 percent confidence, backed by a predicted scoreline of 1-2. It got the result direction right — Frankfurt did win — but missed on the exact margin. The model had expected a tighter contest, factoring in Mainz's strength at home and Frankfurt's relegation-zone vulnerability, but Frankfurt's clinical finishing and control in the second half proved decisive. The stakes heading in were real for both sides: Mainz chasing European football, Frankfurt fighting the drop. Mainz's early aggression and penalty leveler suggested they had the platform to make a game of it, but Frankfurt simply had more cutting edge when it mattered. It's a reminder that even when the model spots the right team to back, the journey to three points doesn't always match the expected scoreline.