📊 Recent Form
Fulham
Hull City
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Fulham at 49%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 27% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Fulham at 49% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 55% — a gap against us of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 78/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Fulham got the job done against Hull City with a 1-0 win at home, moving themselves a step closer to safety in what's been a tight battle at the bottom. Alex Iwobi broke the deadlock in the 33rd minute with an assist from Sander Berge, and that single goal proved enough to see off the visitors. It was a fairly controlled performance from the home side, though things got spicy late on when Ryan Sessegnon picked up a red card deep into injury time.
Our model had leaned toward a 2-1 scoreline heading into kickoff, giving Fulham a 49% chance of victory alongside a 27% draw probability. While we got the result direction spot on, the match played out tighter than expected—no second goal materialized for either side. The pre-match expectation was shaped by Fulham's desperation (facing relegation) and Hull City's vulnerability on the road, but Hull's defence held firm after Iwobi's opener. Sometimes the game's just more compact than the underlying form and motivation suggest, and that's what happened here.
The win still matters plenty for Fulham's survival bid, and from a prediction standpoint, backing the home side to win was the right call—even if the exact scoreline didn't land. That's football: get the big call right and you can live with missing the precise detail.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham Win | 8/11 1.73 | 55% | 49% | -6% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.88 | 25% | 27% | +2% |
| Hull City Win | 7/2 4.68 | 20% | 24% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Fulham in relegation danger (P20/20)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Premier League history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Fulham inconsistent at home (DLWLW) but motivated by relegation; Hull City averaging 1.19 goals scored with poor away record (LDLWDL)
H2H: Fulham dominant — 6 wins from last 8, avg 2.6 goals/game, home_dominant pattern
Stakes: Fulham in 20th place facing relegation — maximum motivation; Hull City mid-table with nothing critical at stake
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Fulham have won 6 of the last 8 H2H meetings including three consecutive away wins for Hull in competitive fixtures — clear home dominance pattern, with average of 2.6 goals per game suggesting moderate scoring games.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.