Fulham and Manchester United cancelled each other out in a 1-1 draw at Craven Cottage, a result that felt far from certain when our model pencilled in a 1-2 away win beforehand. The match turned on a pair of unfortunate moments: an own goal from Lisandro Martínez in the 63rd minute handed Fulham an early lead, only for Matheus Cunha to level it up in the 89th minute, courtesy of Patrick Dorgu's assist. Neither side could find a winner, and the points were shared.

Our prediction assigned a 28% chance to the draw, so while it wasn't the likeliest outcome in our eyes, it sat comfortably within the range of plausible results. What did happen was that we leaned on Manchester United's historical advantage over Fulham—five wins in their last eight meetings—and their superior quality on paper, enough to tip the balance toward a narrow United victory. The expectation before kickoff was that Fulham's desperation (sitting rock bottom) would drive intensity and goals, but that United's class would ultimately tell. In practice, the match stayed tight throughout, and neither side pulled clear.

The own goal muddied what might have been a more straightforward narrative, and it was fitting that United needed a late equaliser to avoid defeat. On another day, either outcome could have been the story. We missed the exact score and the result direction—that's the nature of a call with draw probability under 30%—but the tightness of the contest itself aligned with what we'd flagged about these two: close encounters are the norm in their head-to-head record, and that's exactly what we got.