Gaziantep FK came from nowhere to dismantle Göztepe 4-2 in a result that turned our pre-match lean on its head. After Halil Dervisoglu opened the scoring in the fifth minute, Myenty Abena doubled the visitors' lead just five minutes later with Alexandru Maxim providing the assist. Göztepe pulled one back through a Novatus Miroshi penalty on the half-hour mark, but Kacper Kozłowski made it 3-1 before the break and then added a second in first-half stoppage time, again assisted by Maxim. Juan Santos gave Göztepe some hope with an assisted goal from Janderson de Carvalho Costa in the 51st minute, and a late penalty from Santos in the 93rd minute briefly suggested a wild comeback, but it came too late. A red card for Ogun Bayrak in the 72nd minute left Göztepe a man down through the final stretch and effectively killed any momentum.

Our model backed Göztepe to edge a tight 2-1 win with 54 per cent win probability, leaning on their strong home record and recent form against what we'd flagged as a low-motivation Gaziantep side sitting mid-table. That prediction didn't come close. Instead, Gaziantep showed real cutting edge early on and didn't relent, turning in a clinical display that belied their supposed lack of incentive. The match played out nothing like we'd anticipated—Gaziantep's away bite proved far sharper than expected, and once they went up by three goals, the game was essentially done. It's a clean miss on our part: we'd weighted a low-scoring Göztepe win too heavily and underestimated how dangerous Gaziantep could be on the road, even without much on the line in the table.