📊 Recent Form
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. Galatasaray edge it at 44% against 25% for the draw and 31% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray Win | 11/10 2.15 | 43% | 44% | +1% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 25% | ±0% |
| Fenerbahçe Win | 15/8 2.94 | 32% | 31% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Galatasaray in title race (P2)
- 🎯 Fenerbahçe chasing top-2 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Galatasaray xG 1.48 | Fenerbahçe xG 1.53
Projected: 41% / 26% / 33%
H2H: 4W-2D-2L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
4W-2D-2L for Galatasaray in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.