Galatasaray came from behind to beat Göztepe 3-2 in a match that unfolded in sharp contrast to our pre-kick expectations. Göztepe stunned the visitors early when Miroshi finished from André Henrique's assist in the 16th minute, but Galatasaray hit back through Davinson Sánchez's leveller at 33 minutes. Gabriel restored the lead nine minutes into the second half, set up by Victor Osimhen, before Osimhen himself converted a penalty kick at 63 minutes to make it 3-1. Göztepe pulled one back through Juan Santos in the 65th minute, but it proved too little too late.

Our model favoured Galatasaray heavily before kickoff—64% win probability, leaning on their superior expected goals output of 2.25 to Göztepe's 0.71—but predicted a tidy 2-0 scoreline. That accuracy on the result direction doesn't mask what happened on the pitch. We called the winner right, but the actual flow of the game, with early opposition pressure, an Osimhen penalty, and two Göztepe goals, painted a different picture than the clean-sheet narrative we'd flagged. The underlying quality gap showed up in the final outcome, yet Göztepe made Galatasaray work harder than our pre-match read suggested they would.