Galatasaray took all three points at Gençlerbirliği with a 1-0 victory, sealed by an own goal from Egribayat in the 88th minute. It wasn't the open, high-scoring affair our model had leaned toward, but the result itself landed exactly where we'd backed it to go.

Before kickoff, our prediction favored a Galatasaray win at 52% probability, with a projected scoreline of 1-2. The underlying logic was straightforward: Gençlerbirliği were battling relegation danger and struggling for goals at home, while Galatasaray were top of the table with the squad depth to grind out wins on the road despite some inconsistent away form. Both sides had plenty of motivation—desperation on one end, ambition on the other. What didn't materialize was the goal glut we'd flagged. The match stayed tight until late, when an own goal handed Galatasaray the win rather than a more conventional strike.

Our model called the winner right but missed the scoreline, landing on 1-2 when the finish was 0-1. That's a familiar miss for predictions on tight, low-scoring matches where one set piece or error can swing things. Galatasaray's efficiency in the final moments—even if it came via misfortune for their hosts—was enough to secure top-of-the-table business as usual. For Gençlerbirliği, it's another defeat in what remains a grim push to stay up.