Gent and Hibernian served up a stalemate in this UEFA Conference League knockout tie, with neither side able to break the deadlock over 90 minutes. The designated home side created the better chances and controlled large spells of possession, but a solitary penalty converted by Elding in the 15th minute for Hibernian proved to be the only moment of genuine quality in a frustrating match for both teams.

Our model had predicted a 2-1 scoreline, assigning a 51% probability to a Gent win but only 27% to the draw that actually occurred. The forecast was built on Gent's solid home form and superior expected goals, set against Hibernian's struggles on the road and limited attacking threat. In the end, neither team could find the clinical finishing the model had anticipated. Hibernian's early penalty aside, the visitors rarely threatened, and Gent's pressure never converted into goals — a sharp departure from the underlying expectation of a more open, higher-scoring contest.

The stalemate leaves the tie genuinely in the balance heading into the return leg. Both sides will feel there's plenty left to play for, and the knockout format means one moment of quality could still decide who progresses. Our model simply got the margin wrong on the night — a reminder that even when the logic and the numbers stack up cleanly before kickoff, football doesn't always oblige.