Gent and IFK Goteborg played out a 1-1 draw in this UEFA Conference League second leg, leaving the tie finely balanced heading into extra time. Volckaert opened the scoring for Gent in the 27th minute with an assist from Araujo, but IFK fought back to level through Alioum in the 85th, who was set up by Ottosson. The result means Gent's slender first-leg advantage from the opening fixture remains intact, though IFK's late equaliser keeps them very much in the hunt.

Our model had fancied a 2-0 win for Gent, assigning a 65% chance to a home victory but just 20% to a draw. The actual outcome—a draw—sat squarely in the plausible range we'd flagged, though not the most likely one. Pre-kickoff, we'd expected Gent to control the game and exploit their defensive record at home while IFK's weaker away form would leave them vulnerable on the counter. That narrative held up for 58 minutes, but IFK's pressing late on reaped a reward and pulled them level. The match didn't unfold as our model's central pick suggested, yet it wasn't a wild misread either—draws happen, and this one was always on the table.

With the aggregate scoreline still in Gent's favour after 90 minutes, the tie now heads to extra time with everything to play for. IFK need just a goal to progress; Gent need to find a second wind in a match that's refused to settle.