📊 Recent Form
Getafe
Deportivo La Coruna
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Getafe edge it at 39% against 31% for the draw and 30% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–1 points to a draw while the probabilities favour Getafe. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 60/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Getafe and Deportivo La Coruna played out a tightly contested 1-1 draw at Getafe's ground, with both sides getting their name on the scoresheet in the second half. Ramón Terrats put the home side ahead in the 66th minute, assisted by Iván Azón, but Deportivo levelled things up twelve minutes later when Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang finished from Yeremay Hernández's assist. The result leaves both teams with a point apiece in what turned out to be a fairly even contest.
Our model's most likely outcome at 31%, the draw landed exactly as we'd predicted pre-kickoff, and it matched the exact scoreline too. Before the match, Getafe looked vulnerable — stuck in relegation trouble with a thin cushion on points and a squad stretched by injuries and suspensions — while Deportivo arrived in noticeably better recent form. The prediction leaned on that pressure and defensive frailty to suggest a tight, low-scoring affair. The match itself bore that out: both teams created chances but neither could pull clear, and the 1-1 result felt consistent with what the underlying numbers had pointed to.
It's the kind of result where a draw was always going to be the likeliest single outcome, even if it sat below 50% in the probability breakdown. Getafe's desperation at home couldn't quite overcome Deportivo's solidity on the road, and a point apiece was probably a fair reflection of how the game unfolded.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe Win | 6/4 2.51 | 38% | 39% | +1% |
| Draw | 15/8 2.87 | 33% | 31% | -2% |
| Deportivo La Coruna Win | 9/4 3.30 | 29% | 30% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Getafe in relegation danger (P15, only 2 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Getafe struggling (Win% 20%, avg 0.83 scored), Deportivo in better shape (Win% 40%, avg 1.56 scored)
H2H: Getafe dominant historically (5W-2D-1L), avg 2.5 goals/game, home advantage clear
Stakes: Getafe in relegation danger (P15, 2pt cushion) — home pressure boosts intensity but squad depth is a concern with 6 injuries/suspensions
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Getafe have won 5 of the last 8 meetings with strong home dominance, but recent results include a 0-0 draw and generally tight scorelines — pattern supports a competitive, low-scoring encounter rather than a high-goal game.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
