Getafe turned in a dominant second-half display to beat FK Partizan 3-1 in this UEFA Conference League knockout tie, securing passage with a performance that ultimately proved far more emphatic than our pre-match model had anticipated. Unal got them off to the perfect start with an early goal in the tenth minute, assisted by Mojica, but Partizan hit back before half-time when Seck levelled things up in the 43rd minute. The match pivoted decisively when Getafe went down to ten men following Abqar's red card in the 68th minute — a moment that could have shifted momentum entirely. Instead, Getafe doubled down, with Garcia adding a third in the 87th minute before Mojica rounded off the scoring in the 90th to seal a commanding win.

Our model had leaned towards a tight, low-scoring affair, projecting a 1-0 Getafe victory with just a 52% probability attached to that outcome. We got the result direction right but badly underestimated the intensity of Getafe's attacking play, especially after going down a man. The pre-match setup suggested defensive solidity and risk-aversion from both sides given the elimination stakes — reasonable foundations at that stage — but Getafe's quality in the final third simply overwhelmed those expectations once they'd weathered the sending-off. It's a reminder that knockout football can flip quickly, and that sometimes a team's resilience and attacking prowess override the caution you'd normally associate with do-or-die stakes. Partizan came to compete but couldn't sustain it when the pressure intensified.