Getafe dismantled Mallorca 3-1 in a performance that contradicted almost every pre-match indicator. Mateo Satriano opened the scoring in the 14th minute with an assist from Nyom, then doubled his tally before half-time to give the hosts a commanding 2-0 lead. Zombro Romero added a third in the 63rd minute off Milla's assist, with Mascarell pulling one back for Mallorca moments later. The scoreline stood at 3-1, a far cry from the 1-1 draw our model had predicted with 37 percent confidence in that outcome.

Our prediction fundamentally misread the contest. The flagged concerns about low motivation and conservative play from both mid-table teams proved unfounded as Getafe produced an unexpectedly clinical attacking display. Satriano's two-goal haul suggested the efficiency improvement our pre-match analysis had noted in the underlying data—Getafe's xG to goals conversion gap—materialized more sharply than anticipated. The match offered little resistance from Mallorca, whose defensive vulnerabilities and depleted squad appeared more pronounced in practice than our model had weighted.

The most notable miss was underestimating Getafe's attacking intent despite being at home. While Mallorca's patchy away form was correctly identified, their complete inability to mount meaningful resistance made the Under 2.5 goals projection particularly wide of the mark. The final tally of four goals vindicated neither the low-scoring trend observed in the head-to-head record nor the cautious approach expected from both sides. This was a straightforward home victory where one team significantly outperformed the other, a scenario our balanced probability distribution had failed to adequately capture.