Gornik Zabrze and Ferencvarosi TC cancelled each other out in a cagey Europa League tie that ended 1-1, keeping the aggregate score locked at 2-1 to the Hungarian side. Urbanski opened the scoring from the penalty spot early in the second half, but Ferencvarosi levelled through an own goal by Sacek with less than ten minutes remaining. It was a result that keeps both sides' hopes alive heading into the next stage, though Ferencvarosi's away goal gives them a marginal advantage if it goes further.

Our model had backed a 1-0 scoreline with a lean towards Gornik Zabrze at 43% to win outright. The actual draw wasn't our primary call — we'd given it 27% beforehand — so we missed the direction of the result. What the model had expected was a low-scoring affair with strong defensive work, and that part played out: two goals across ninety minutes fits the framework we'd flagged. The gap between our prediction and what happened came down to how the chances broke, not whether the game would be tight.

Going in, we'd noted Gornik's patchy recent form against Ferencvarosi's overall solidity, and flagged that Ferencvarosi could comfortably sit on their first-leg advantage. A 1-1 draw abroad does exactly that for them — it advances their interests without requiring them to take unnecessary risks. Gornik, needing to win, had to push, but they couldn't find a second. It's a decent advert for why three-figure probabilities rarely tell you exactly what'll happen, even when the broad texture lands close to where you thought it would.