📊 Recent Form
Groningen
PEC Zwolle
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Groningen at 47%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 27% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Groningen at 47% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 62% — a gap against us of 15 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 44/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Groningen swept aside PEC Zwolle with a dominant 3-0 victory at home, putting on a clinical display that was far more convincing than our pre-match forecast suggested. Thom van Bergen opened the scoring in the 20th minute with an assist from David van der Werff, then Jorg Schreuders doubled the lead before halftime. Van der Werff was involved again in the 68th minute, this time setting up Tygo Land to seal a comprehensive win and leave PEC Zwolle with nothing to show from a tough away trip.
Our model predicted a 2-1 Groningen win with 47% confidence in a home victory — not the most likely outcome overall, but a reasonable lean given the underlying form and fixtures. The result direction was spot-on; the margin wasn't. We'd flagged PEC Zwolle's poor away record and defensive fragility going into the match, and that concern proved well-founded, though more emphatically than expected. Groningen's home comfort and superior squad depth evidently made the difference here. The scoreline suggests the visitors' relegation battle desperation didn't translate into the competitive resistance we'd anticipated, and Groningen's attack found considerably more joy than the pre-match xG average had implied.
A clean sheet and three goals tells its own story — this was Groningen controlling the game on home turf and executing without the scrappiness the tight head-to-head record might have suggested.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen Win | 1/2 1.50 | 62% | 47% | -15% |
| Draw Value | 7/2 4.49 | 21% | 27% | +6% |
| PEC Zwolle Win Value | 9/2 5.60 | 17% | 26% | +9% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Groningen mid-table (P9) — low motivation
- 🆘 PEC Zwolle in relegation danger (P16/18)
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick — risk factors detected for Groningen, confidence reduced
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Groningen inconsistent (30% win rate) but avg 1.91 xG at home; PEC Zwolle poor away (DWLL) and conceding heavily
H2H: 6 draws in last 8, avg 1.6 goals — historically tight, but PEC Zwolle's injury crisis shifts the balance
Stakes: PEC Zwolle in relegation battle (P16) brings urgency but Groningen's home comfort and ELO edge give them the edge
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Heavily draw-prone fixture with 6 draws in last 8 meetings and an average of just 1.6 goals per game — historically very tight. However, PEC Zwolle's current injury list and relegation pressure disrupts the usual pattern slightly in Groningen's favour.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
