📊 Recent Form
Haiti
Peru
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. a draw edge it at 39% against 39% for the draw and 31% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have a draw at 39% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 29% — a gap in our favour of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haiti Win | 7/4 2.77 | 33% | 31% | -2% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.20 | 29% | 39% | +10% |
| Peru Win | 6/4 2.50 | 38% | 30% | -8% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Haiti LDLW with avg 1.79 scored but 2.74 conceded; Peru WLDL with avg 0.85 scored and 0.75 conceded — both inconsistent
H2H: Limited historical data between these sides
Stakes: International friendly with no competitive stakes for either team — neither side has strong motivation to chase a win aggressively, favouring a draw outcome
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to draw meaningful trends between Haiti and Peru
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.