📊 Recent Form
Heart Of Midlothian
ST Johnstone
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Heart Of Midlothian at 54%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 27% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 12 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 64/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Heart of Midlothian held on to beat St Johnstone 2-1 in a match that played out closer than our pre-match model had leaned. Our prediction of a 2-0 win for Hearts had the right result direction—the home side did take the points—but missed the actual scoreline and the drama that unfolded across the ninety minutes.
Hearts made the stronger start, with James Wilson opening the scoring early on after seven minutes, set up by Josh Mcpake. Things looked to be tracking toward the clean sheet we'd flagged as likely when an own goal from Enes Alıç extended Hearts' lead to two just before half-time. But St Johnstone came out with real purpose after the restart and pulled one back through Ruari Paton in the 48th minute, assisted by Sam Stanton, setting up a tense finale. Our model had given Hearts a 54% chance of winning going into the afternoon, with the draw at 27%—so while we backed the right outcome, we hadn't fully anticipated how much St Johnstone would test them in the second half. The visitors' defensive vulnerabilities away from home that we'd noted beforehand didn't stop them troubling Hearts once they got the ball rolling, and for a side carrying mixed form overall, they made it a proper contest. In the end, Hearts' strong recent H2H record held up, but St Johnstone made sure it wasn't the comfortable afternoon the early scoreline had suggested it might be.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian Win | 8/11 1.73 | 54% | 54% | ±0% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 27% | +2% |
| ST Johnstone Win | 7/2 4.49 | 21% | 19% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Hearts inconsistent overall (30% win rate) but solid in H2H; St Johnstone in good overall form (67% win rate) but away record shows defensive vulnerabilities
H2H: Hearts 8 wins from 8, avg 2.4 goals/game, consistently winning 2-1 or 1-0
Stakes: Both teams mid-table, normal motivation — no major pressure factor tilting either side
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Hearts have won all 8 of the last 8 meetings with zero draws — the most one-sided H2H in this dataset. Typical scorelines are tight (2-1, 1-0), suggesting Hearts win but don't always run riot.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
