📊 Recent Form
Heart Of Midlothian
Sturm Graz
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Heart Of Midlothian at 51%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 29% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 13 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Sturm Graz advanced to the next round with a professional 2-0 victory, securing their passage to the knockout stage and confirming the wide gulf revealed in the first leg. Goals from Seidl in the 64th minute, set up by Gorenc Stankovic, and Soglo four minutes later put the tie beyond reach and left Hearts with no realistic path back into the contest. The Austrian side managed the task exactly as required — they came to defend an aggregate lead and left with it intact, clinical rather than spectacular but entirely fit for purpose in a two-legged tie.
Our model predicted a 1-0 scoreline with Hearts as narrow favourites at 51% to win outright, a lean that reflected the elimination stakes and Hearts' theoretical need to overturn a four-goal deficit. The actual 2-0 result sits outside that call, though Sturm Graz's victory itself carried only a 20% pre-match probability in our win calculations. The match unfolded differently to expectations — Hearts couldn't break through the visiting defence early, and once Sturm Graz got their goals in quick succession midway through the second half, the task became purely academic.
Pre-kickoff, we'd flagged that Hearts' home record hadn't been prolific and that Sturm Graz's excellent recent form paired neatly with a defensive mindset suited to protecting such a commanding first-leg advantage. The second half bore that out: Sturm Graz didn't need to do much more than they did, and a clean sheet completed a professional night's work. Hearts went out without the miracle they needed.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian Win | 10/11 1.87 | 50% | 51% | +1% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 4.00 | 24% | 29% | +5% |
| Sturm Graz Win | 5/2 3.60 | 26% | 20% | -6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Champions League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 4-0 (2026-07-21): Sturm Graz leading aggregate by 4. Heart Of Midlothian needs to win by 4+ goals (or force ET if win by exactly 4); Sturm Graz needs to avoid losing by 5+ goals.
- 🎯 Final scoreline overridden to AI pick 1-0 (aggregate-tie: AI tactical reasoning trusted over Poisson form blend)
- 🎯 Probabilities recomputed from final scoreline 1-0 (aggregate-tie override): 52/32/16
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Hearts WLWWL at home averaging 0.67 goals scored but only 1 home game in recent sample; Sturm Graz WWWWW in excellent form but playing purely to defend aggregate
H2H: First leg 4-0 Sturm Graz win demonstrates massive quality gap, though game-state inverts tactical roles entirely
Stakes: Hearts need to win by 4+ goals to force ET — almost impossible, so Sturm Graz can play deep and absorb pressure all night
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data beyond this two-legged tie; first leg 4-0 shows Sturm Graz's quality edge, but tactical inversion in second leg makes direct comparison unreliable.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.