📊 Recent Form
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Hibernian at 54%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 24% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Hibernian at 54% where the consensus of 11 bookmakers has 57% — a gap against us of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 65/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian Win | 4/6 1.65 | 57% | 54% | -3% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 24% | 24% | ±0% |
| Kilmarnock Win | 4/1 4.95 | 19% | 22% | +3% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Kilmarnock in relegation danger (P12/12)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Hibernian averaging 1.38 goals scored, 0.79 conceded at home — solid defensive base. Kilmarnock averaging 1.78 scored but 2.17 conceded — leaky but capable going forward.
H2H: Hibernian unbeaten in last 8 (4W 4D), averaging 2.6 goals per game — history supports goals in this fixture.
Stakes: Kilmarnock bottom of the table and in relegation danger — high motivation to press and attack, reduces likelihood of a clean sheet for Hibernian.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Hibernian have been dominant in recent H2H — 4 wins and 4 draws in the last 8, never losing. The last five meetings have all produced goals for Hibernian, including a 3-0 and 3-1 in the two most recent fixtures. Average of 2.6 goals per game suggests this fixture tends to produce a meaningful total.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.