Hibernian tore through Malisheva with a dominant second-leg display, running out 4-1 winners in a performance that swung the tie emphatically in their favour. Elding opened the scoring inside nine minutes, assisted by Boyle, then Passlack made it two just six minutes later. The home side kept the pressure relentless—Lowe added a third on 35 minutes with Elding turning provider this time—before Boyle sealed it with a fourth in the 57th minute. Malisheva grabbed a consolation through Bajraktari in the 83rd, but the damage was done long before then.

Our model had favoured Hibernian with a 57% win probability, but we'd predicted a tighter 2-1 scoreline rather than the emphatic margin that followed. The forecast was built on Hibernian's need to overturn a 2-0 first-leg deficit and the expectation that Malisheva would sit deep in a defensive shape—classic away posture in a knockout. That tactical setup did materialize, but Hibernian's execution was sharper and more clinical than we'd anticipated. Where we'd estimated their attacking threat at around 1.11 goals on average form, they simply overwhelmed their visitors with pace and precision, turning what looked like a tight affair on paper into a comfortable passage through.

The result means our directional call came good—we had Hibernian down as likeliest to win—but we underestimated how badly Malisheva would unravel once the pressure mounted. That's a fair lesson in the difference between a team's defensive posture on paper and how it holds up when the opposition executes properly from the off.