📊 Recent Form
HNK Rijeka
Ilves
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes HNK Rijeka a 73% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
Across 14 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as high at 76/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
HNK Rijeka's home advantage proved enough to see off Ilves in a low-scoring UEFA Conference League knockout tie, with the Croatian side securing a 1-0 win. Nikola Jankovic broke the deadlock in the 16th minute, assisted by Tomislav Dantas, and that single goal proved decisive on the night. It wasn't the goal-laden affair our model had envisioned, but the result aligned with what we'd leaned toward heading in.
Our prediction of a 2-0 Rijeka win gave the home side a 73% chance of victory — the most likely outcome in a fairly straightforward matchup on paper. We got the direction right but underestimated how tight things would actually be. Before kickoff, Rijeka's excellent home form and Ilves' struggles away from home suggested the hosts would control proceedings and likely keep things clean at the back. The match played out broadly in line with those pre-match expectations, though Rijeka couldn't find that second goal to match our scoreline forecast. They had the better of it for large stretches but lacked the clinical edge needed to turn dominance into more goals. It wasn't a shock result — the model's highest probability outcome came through — just a narrower margin than anticipated. UEFA Conference League knockout football can be like that: the better team wins, but sometimes by slimmer margins than the form book suggests.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka Win | 2/9 1.22 | 75% | 73% | -2% |
| Draw | 9/2 5.53 | 17% | 15% | -2% |
| Ilves Win | 10/1 11.00 | 8% | 12% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Conference League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🏆 Knockout margin cap applied: limited home margin to 2 goals
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Rijeka 88% win rate, last 5 home games dominant with multiple clean sheets; Ilves 40% win rate, struggling away with 5 losses in last 6 away fixtures
H2H: Limited data
Stakes: UEFA Conference League knockout — both teams fully motivated, but Rijeka's quality edge is decisive at home
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.