Houston Dynamo edged Real Salt Lake 2-1 in a match that largely played out as a one-goal contest, despite our model tipping a clean sheet win. Guilherme Augusto broke the deadlock in the 57th minute, assisted by Lawrence Ennali, and looked to have set Houston on course for the shutout. Real Salt Lake had other ideas, though. Saba Lobjanidze pulled one back in the 76th with help from Lineker Rodrigues to make it 2-1, but Houston held firm. Augusto turned provider late on, setting up Mateusz Bogusz in the 87th minute to seal the win.

Our model predicted a 2-0 scoreline with a 54% lean toward a Houston victory, so we got the result direction right but missed the actual shape of the game. The forecast had weighted a shutout quite heavily—Houston's home form looked solid and Real Salt Lake were coming off a rough run away from home. What actually happened was closer to the broader probabilistic picture: Houston did win, but the added goal conceded late in the second half meant it never quite became the clinical affair we'd anticipated. That said, the three points for the title-chasing Dynamo came through, which aligned with the underlying expectation that they'd have enough to get the job done at home.