Hungary vs Finland
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary Win | 4/7 1.56 | 60% | 37% | -23% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 4.00 | 24% | 38% | +14% |
| Finland Win Value | 5/1 5.80 | 16% | 25% | +9% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Hungary 50% win rate but poor home form recently (0-2 loss); Finland 50% win rate but conceding only 0.36 avg away — though last away game was a loss
H2H: 1 win each in last 2 meetings, both low-scoring (2-0 and 1-0), avg 1.5 goals/game
Stakes: International friendly with nothing on the line for either side — low motivation context favours conservative, tight scoreline
Betting: Bookmakers heavily favour Hungary (64% implied) suggesting a home win; low xG values (0.79 vs 0.75) point to under 2.5 goals
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 2 meetings produced tight, low-scoring results (2-0 and 1-0), both decided by a single or double goal margin — pattern strongly supports a low-scoring Hungary win at home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The 1-1 scoreline projects both teams scoring. The engine's underlying probability model gives both sides enough offensive output to find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
With xG values of 0.79 and 0.75, a combined expected goals of just 1.54, and H2H history averaging only 1.5 goals per game, the statistical case for under 2.5 goals is strong. A low-stakes friendly context further suppresses scoring intent, making under 2.5 the comfortable lean here.