Instituto Cordoba got the better of Platense 2-1 in a match that largely delivered on the pre-kickoff script. Cerato opened the scoring early for the home side in the 14th minute with an assist from Sosa, and Tissera doubled the lead in the 55th to put Instituto in control. Platense pulled one back deep into stoppage time through Bobadilla, who was set up by Gauto, but it wasn't enough to salvage a result.

Our model predicted a 2-1 win for Instituto Cordoba, and that's exactly how it played out—a direct hit on the scorecard. Going into the match, we'd given Instituto a 45% chance, the draw 30%, and Platense 25%, so this was the model's most likely outcome, though never a certainty. Before kickoff, we'd flagged Instituto's strong home form against Platense's inconsistency on the road, but we'd also noted the motivation gap working in Platense's favour—a relegation fight tends to sharpen focus. The match unfolded largely as expected on that front: Instituto controlled proceedings and converted early chances, while Platense stayed compact and scrappy without really threatening until the late consolation.

The one real divergence from our thinking was the scoreline itself. We'd actually tipped a 1-1 draw as our base case for the Poisson model, so the prediction of 2-1 proved well-judged even if it wasn't the modal outcome. Instituto's clinical finishing—two goals from relatively limited opportunities—was the difference. It's a solid win that keeps them ticking over, and for Platense, a late goal at least gives them something to build on in the fight ahead.