Inter Miami dismantled DC United 4-0 to deliver a dominant performance that far exceeded our pre-match forecast. Suárez set the tone early, opening the scoring in the third minute with an assist from Berterame, then doubled his tally before half-time in the 39th minute from the same provider. After the break, Messi took over, netting twice—first in the 47th minute off Suárez's pass, then again in the 60th courtesy of De Paul's assist—to seal a comprehensive win.

Our model backed Inter Miami to win at 54% probability, which proved correct on the night. The pre-match expectation leaned toward a 2-1 scoreline, so we got the result direction right but significantly underestimated Miami's cutting edge. The Poisson metrics suggested Inter Miami held a clear advantage in expected goals, and that edge played out on the pitch—just more emphatically than anticipated. DC United couldn't generate any meaningful threat in response, leaving the xG gap to translate into a one-sided affair rather than the tighter contest we'd sketched.

It's a reminder that even when the underlying form favors one side, the margin of victory sits outside what pre-match models typically call. Miami's personnel, particularly Suárez and Messi in sync, simply overwhelmed DC United's defense in a way the historical data didn't quite capture. The win strengthens their position, while DC United face serious questions about where goals come from if they're to climb back into contention.