Inter Miami and Nashville SC played out a dramatic 2-2 draw on the night, a result that leaves both sides with mixed feelings after a match that swung back and forth. Nashville struck first through Surridge in the fourth minute after good work from Najer down the flank, and they looked to be in control. But Inter Miami pulled level in the nineteenth minute when Baker-Whiting deflected the ball into his own net, and the home side seemed to seize momentum. Messi restored Miami's lead in the sixty-second minute with an assist from De Paul, putting them on course for a win. Nashville had other ideas, though, and Surridge levelled things up again in added time to snatch a draw.

Our model had predicted a 1-2 away win for Nashville, giving them the edge at 34% to Inter Miami's 39%. A draw sat at just 27%, so the actual outcome wasn't among our favoured scenarios — we had weighted the match toward a Nashville victory or a narrow Miami win, not a stalemate. The model had flagged Nashville's solid form and their confidence after a thumping win over Miami back in August, while noting the home side's shaky record in this venue. That lean toward the visitors proved partly justified by how they came out and took an early lead, but the actual flow didn't follow the script we'd drawn up. Both teams ended up finding the net twice, which speaks to the attacking quality on show, even if it didn't land on either of the outcomes we'd considered most likely.