Inter Miami and San Diego played out a thrilling 2-2 draw, with both sides getting a goal apiece in the first half before the visitors levelled again late on. Dreyer opened the scoring for San Diego in the 12th minute, assisted by Tverskov, but Messi quickly restored parity for Inter Miami just eleven minutes later. The designated home side looked to have seized control when Suarez made it 2-1 in the 75th minute, courtesy of de Paul's assist, only for Dreyer to grab his second of the night in the 82nd minute and snatch a point for the visitors.

Our model predicted a 2-1 win for Inter Miami, assigning a 54% probability to a home victory. The actual 2-2 result fell outside our primary scenario — we'd leaned toward a decisive Inter Miami win given their superior form and San Diego's precarious league position. What actually unfolded was a more open contest than anticipated. We'd flagged the potential for both teams to score and expected an attacking game, but the final margin and draw result underscore how competitive this matchup turned out to be. San Diego came with purpose and weren't overawed, while Inter Miami couldn't quite convert their home advantage into three points despite going ahead twice. The draw at 25% probability wasn't a shock miss — it was a plausible outcome we'd already sized into our model — but the exact flow of goals and the late leveller proved beyond our lean.