📊 Recent Form
Inter Turku
Başakşehir
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. Başakşehir edge it at 44% against 23% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Başakşehir at 44% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 53% — a gap against us of 9 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Turku Win Value | 10/3 4.40 | 21% | 33% | +12% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.65 | 26% | 23% | -3% |
| Başakşehir Win | 8/11 1.73 | 53% | 44% | -9% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Conference League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 1-1 (2026-07-22): tie level on aggregate going into second leg.
- 🎯 Final scoreline overridden to AI pick 1-2 (aggregate-tie: AI tactical reasoning trusted over Poisson form blend)
- 🎯 Probabilities recomputed from final scoreline 1-2 (aggregate-tie override): 22/22/56
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Inter Turku patchy at home (LWDD), avg 1.4 scored; Başakşehir strong away form (WWD), avg 0.89 scored but only 0.71 conceded
H2H: First leg ended 1-1, suggesting both teams capable of finding the net but defences competitive
Stakes: Full knockout elimination — both teams at maximum intensity, but Başakşehir's rest advantage and bookmaker confidence gives them a meaningful edge
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
First leg ended 1-1 in Istanbul, indicating an evenly matched tie with both teams capable of scoring but neither dominant; limited broader H2H data available.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.