Ipswich pulled off a comeback to stun Fulham 2-1 at home, turning around a match they trailed for much of the second half. Ryan Sessegnon fired Fulham ahead in the 55th minute, putting the visitors in control when they needed it most with their relegation battle on the line. But Ipswich found a way back. Abdoul Ouattara levelled things up in the 88th minute, and then Dara O'Shea sealed it deep into stoppage time with a goal set up by Jack Clarke to grab the winner and leave Fulham empty-handed.

Our model came into this one backing a Fulham win with 45% probability — a lean rather than a confident call, given the inherent unpredictability of a tight match. We'd predicted a 1-2 scoreline with Ipswich at just 28% to win, weighted heavily on Fulham's edge in head-to-head history and their relegation survival stakes against Ipswich's mid-table comfort. The match didn't follow that script. Ipswich's late push and ability to nick it when it mattered most wasn't the likeliest outcome we'd mapped, and it's fair to say Fulham's motivation advantage didn't translate on the day. Whether it was a lack of clinical finishing, a dip in concentration as the clock ticked down, or simply Ipswich showing more nous in the closing stages, the visitors couldn't hold on. For our model, it's a miss — but in a game this tight and competitive, that's always in the cards.