Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

Ivory Coast claimed a narrow 1-0 victory over Ecuador in a World Cup encounter decided by a late goal. The match remained scoreless through 59 minutes, with both sides creating limited clear-cut chances. Diallo broke the deadlock in the 90th minute with an assist from Singo, securing the win in stoppage time when the contest appeared destined for a draw.

Our pre-match model predicted a 1-1 draw and assigned Ivory Coast a 21% win probability. Ecuador entered as the favoured outcome at 50%, reflecting their perceived strength relative to their opponent. The actual result—an Ivory Coast victory—fell well outside the model's primary lean. The late timing of the goal and the match's overall pattern of play diverged from what the pre-match analysis had weighted. With minimal expected goals generated by either side through the hour mark, a stalemate seemed the likeliest path, yet Ivory Coast found a decisive moment when it mattered most.

The prediction miss underscores the inherent limits of pre-match modelling in tight, low-scoring fixtures. Tournament football frequently produces results at the extremes of the probability distribution, and this encounter proved no exception. The model's emphasis on Ecuador's attacking threat and draw probability reflected available information at kickoff, but it could not anticipate the specific tactical or individual performance factors that would shift the balance late in the match.