📊 Recent Form
Ivory Coast
Norway
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Norway at 55%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 23% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Norway at 55% where the consensus of 12 bookmakers has 45% — a gap in our favour of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Norway held off a comeback attempt from Ivory Coast to win 2-1 in a match that unfolded pretty much as our model had sketched it out beforehand. Nusa opened the scoring for Norway in the 39th minute with an assist from Odegaard, giving the visitors an early foothold. Ivory Coast pulled level through Diallo in the 74th minute—Pepe with the assist—to set up a tense finale, but Haaland settled it for Norway with a late goal in the 86th, Berg providing the assist for a one-goal margin that held.
Our prediction of a 1-2 Norway win landed spot-on with the exact scoreline. Before kickoff, the model had leaned toward a Norway victory at 55% probability, reflecting their higher scoring output and slight ELO edge despite mixed away form. The match played out consistently with that expectation: Norway's attacking threat came through, Ivory Coast showed fight from their strong home position, and the total of three goals tracked with what we'd flagged. Getting both the result direction and the exact score right is the kind of outcome that keeps the model honest, though it's worth remembering that 55% was a lean, not a certainty—two other outcomes were entirely plausible going in, and this just happened to be the one that landed.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivory Coast Win | 5/2 3.51 | 27% | 22% | -5% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.45 | 28% | 23% | -5% |
| Norway Win Value | 11/10 2.10 | 45% | 55% | +10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Ivory Coast on strong home run (WWWWW), Norway mixed away (WDL) but high-scoring overall. Norway averaging 3.16 goals scored per game.
H2H: Limited data available between these sides.
Stakes: International friendly/tournament context — Norway motivated to assert ELO superiority; Ivory Coast competitive at home.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to draw strong trends between Ivory Coast and Norway.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.