Jagiellonia turned in a dominant second-half display to beat Ararat-Armenia 3-1 and progress in the Europa League, though the scoreline proved more emphatic than our pre-match model expected. The early stages went back and forth—Zidane Banjaqui put Ararat-Armenia ahead inside the opening quarter following Maxence Carlier's assist, but Kamil Jóźwiak levelled for Jagiellonia just two minutes later. From there, the designated home side took control. Rodrigo Conceição restored Jagiellonia's lead before the break with Anders Klynge providing the assist, and Ousmane Sow sealed it in the 51st minute after a setup from Jesús Imaz, leaving Ararat-Armenia chasing the game for the entire second half.

Our model had settled on a 2-1 Jagiellonia win, rating it the most likely outcome at 48% probability—a lean rather than a strong conviction in what looked like a competitive knockout tie. The correct result direction came through, but the model underestimated how decisively Jagiellonia would dominate once they got their noses in front. Pre-kickoff, we'd flagged the designated home side's patchy recent form against Ararat-Armenia's solid away record, and early on that tension played out—the visitors' bright start suggested real danger. But Jagiellonia's superior class showed after the opener, and they ran away with it in the second half. The model had predicted a tighter affair, so this was one where the favourite won bigger than expected.