Jagiellonia put on a dominant display to dismantle Saburtalo 4-0 in this Europa League knockout tie, a result that massively exceeded our pre-match expectation of a tight 2-1 encounter. The designated home side went ahead from the penalty spot through Imaz in the 34th minute, then doubled their lead just before half-time when Agbonifo finished off a move involving Wojtuszek's assist. An own goal from Alhassan on 62 minutes made it three, and Lozano added a fourth late on with Conceicao setting him up, sealing a comprehensive victory.

Our model had leaned towards a Jagiellonia win at 52% probability — the most likely single outcome — but with meaningful space left for draws and Saburtalo upsets at 24% apiece. The prediction centred on a narrow 2-1 scoreline, weighted by Jagiellonia's strong recent form and Europa League knockout intensity, though the lack of head-to-head history and Saburtalo's occasional away-day threat suggested a competitive game. What we got instead was a one-sided affair that bore no resemblance to that close forecast. The home side's quality was simply too much, and the visitors never got going—there was no comeback threat, no narrow escape, just clinical finishing and control.

Hindsight's always easy, but the gap between 2-1 and 4-0 isn't down to a single missed detail—it's the margin between a competitive tie and a blowout, and that's a much harder call to land when the form sheets and fixture stakes point toward a tight contest. Our model got the direction right but missed the scale entirely.