Japan vs Iceland

Sun 31 May 2026

Final Score

1 – 0

Our prediction got the result right

✓ Result

✗ Exact score

✗ BTTS

✗ Over 2.5

CleverScores Prediction

3 – 1

Home Win Medium

Japan

71%

Draw

14%

Iceland

15%

💰 Finding the Value

Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.

Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Edge
Japan Win	2/9 1.23	75%	71%	-4%
Draw	5/1 5.78	16%	14%	-2%
Iceland Win Value	10/1 11.00	9%	15%	+6%

1 value market identified in this fixture.

Edge is the gap between our model probability and the bookmaker consensus. A +5% or larger edge means we think this outcome is meaningfully more likely than the market does. Odds shown are the median across all bookies in both fractional (UK) and decimal formats — always verify current prices with your bookmaker. Predictions are for information only and are not financial advice.

View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff

⚡ Stakes & Context

⏱️ Rest advantage: Iceland (354d) vs Japan (194d) — Iceland significantly fresher

🔍 Key Stats

Form: Japan WWWDLDWWW with strong home record; Iceland LW with very limited sample
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: Friendly match, both teams using as World Cup 2026 preparation — Japan have stronger competitive momentum
Betting: BTTS likely given Iceland's attacking output (2.7 avg scored) despite conceding heavily; Over 2.5 strongly supported by Japan's xG of 3.67 and model projecting 5+ combined expected goals

⚔️ Head to Head

Limited data

🎲 Betting Tips

Both Teams to Score: Yes
Iceland average 2.7 goals scored per game and have shown attacking intent even in their short recent sample (3-1 win), making it plausible they breach Japan's defence at least once. Japan concede just 0.89 on average but Iceland's fresher legs and attacking quality give them a reasonable chance of converting at least one opportunity.

Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
Japan's xG of 3.67 alone exceeds 2.5, and with Iceland also contributing offensively (2.7 avg goals scored), the combined expected output strongly points to an over 2.5 goals outcome. Japan's last five scorelines include multiple high-scoring games (3-0, 2-0, 3-2, 2-2) further reinforcing the case for a goal-heavy match.

CleverScore confidence: Medium

Predictions are AI-generated from form data, head-to-head history, and contextual signals. Football is unpredictable — never bet more than you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org