Levski Sofia advanced with a 1-0 win on the night, securing their passage through this Champions League tie with a composed defensive display. Reinaldo broke the deadlock in the 13th minute after good work from Everton Bala down the flank, and that single goal proved enough. Kairat Almaty pressed for an equaliser throughout but couldn't find a way through, leaving them needing a two-goal swing they never managed to engineer. The Sofia side's job was straightforward — protect an aggregate lead and avoid defeat — and they executed it exactly as intended.

Our model predicted a 1-0 scoreline heading in, giving Levski a 30% chance of winning. That call on the exact score turned out to be spot on, but we got the direction wrong — we had Kairat as the more likely winners at 43%, while a draw sat at 27%. The aggregate context shaped our thinking before kickoff: Kairat needed to win by two goals or force extra time, which made them the natural favourites in the probabilistic lean. Levski, meanwhile, arrived content to be conservative and hold what they had. In the end, that tactical caution paid off, and the visitors' resilience proved the difference.

It's a clean miss for us on the result direction, though the exact scoreline we landed on did materialise. That's the nature of tight knockout football — a 30% outcome isn't a wild prediction, but it's not the likeliest one either, and this time the less-favoured path came in. Levski go through; Kairat's European campaign ends here.