Kasımpaşa turned in a dominant performance to thrash Samsunspor 4-1 at home, putting on a clinic that bore almost no resemblance to what our model had in mind. Winck opened the scoring in the 26th minute with Kol's assist, then Arous doubled it just five minutes later after good work from Benedyczak. Samsunspor pulled one back through Coulibaly's 45th-minute strike, but there was no comeback in this one. Arous grabbed his second of the day in the 64th minute off Rak-Sakyi's pass, and Benedyczak rounded out the rout with a 78th-minute finish, courtesy of Demirbay's assist.

Our model had pegged this one as a probable away win—Samsunspor at 32%, Kasımpaşa at 39%—with a predicted scoreline of 1-2. The thinking was straightforward: Samsunspor were fighting relegation and would fight hard for it, while Kasımpaşa, sitting mid-table and stable at home but not particularly dominant, would struggle to break them down. Relegation pressure, the model reckoned, would tighten them up defensively and keep things cagey. That didn't happen. Instead, Kasımpaşa came out and simply overwhelmed them, especially in that opening 45 minutes. Samsunspor's freefall form showed up in full measure, and the hosts carved them apart with clinical finishing. It's one of those matches where the quality gap on the day was wider than the underlying data suggested it would be.