Konyaspor pulled off a rare win at home, taking down Trabzonspor 1-0 in a result that ran against the grain of pre-match expectations. Toth opened the scoring early on in the second minute, assisted by Goncalves, and that proved enough to secure all three points. For a side in genuine relegation trouble, it's the kind of scalp that can shift momentum—but it came against odds our model had heavily weighted the other way.

Coming into the match, our forecast backed Trabzonspor to win 2-1. The visitors had shown better overall form and consistency, while Konyaspor were struggling badly. The model gave Konyaspor just a 33% chance of victory, so this wasn't a confident call that they'd lose—it was a lean toward the visitors. The head-to-head record favored Trabzonspor too, and everything pointed to an away win with goals at both ends. Instead, Konyaspor were clinical early and held firm. Trabzonspor, despite their quality on paper, never found a way through.

It's one of those nights where the better-fancied side simply didn't deliver—the kind of upset that reminds you why we track predictions transparently rather than pretend they were certain. Our model leaned the right direction in identifying Trabzonspor as likely winners, but Konyaspor had other ideas. For a team fighting for survival, a clean sheet win at home is gold dust, even if it defied what the underlying form suggested would happen.