📊 Recent Form
Koper
NSI Runavik
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Koper a 64% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
Across 13 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
NSI Runavik pulled off a stunning turnaround in this UEFA Conference League second leg, winning 2-0 to overturn Koper's first-leg advantage and book their place in the next round. The match swung dramatically across extra time, with Rimac's early penalty for Koper at 25 minutes looking like it might settle the tie. Nolsoe levelled just ten minutes later with an assist from Skytte, and from there NSI Runavik took control. Lindh added a second in the 70th minute to put them ahead on aggregate, then despite Ndiaye's penalty equalising the second-leg scoreline in the 102nd minute, Przybylski's finish in the 120+2nd minute sealed the job and sent the Faroese side through.
Our model had predicted a 2-0 scoreline before kickoff, but got the direction completely wrong—we'd put Koper at 64% to win outright, with NSI Runavik at just 16%. The pre-match view was that Koper's defensive record and their slender first-leg lead would keep them safe, even against an opponent who needed a big win away from home. In reality, NSI Runavik's pressure paid off and they showed far more composure when it mattered, especially in extra time. They deserved it.
This one stings because we had the correct final scoreline in mind but backed the wrong team to deliver it. It's a sharp reminder that aggregate ties don't always break the way the numbers suggest—motivation, momentum, and ruthlessness in knockout football can trump form and defensive solidity. NSI Runavik earned their place, and fair play to them.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koper Win | 2/5 1.42 | 65% | 64% | -1% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.65 | 20% | 20% | ±0% |
| NSI Runavik Win | 5/1 6.00 | 15% | 16% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Conference League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 0-2 (2026-07-23): Koper leading aggregate by 2. Koper needs to avoid losing by 3+ goals; NSI Runavik needs to win by 2+ goals (or force ET if win by exactly 2).
- 🎯 Final scoreline overridden to AI pick 2-0 (aggregate-tie: AI tactical reasoning trusted over Poisson form blend)
- 🎯 Probabilities recomputed from final scoreline 2-0 (aggregate-tie override): 75/17/8
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Koper 60% win rate, conceding just 0.78/game, strong at home; NSI Runavik 50% win rate, 1.21 conceded/game, inconsistent away.
H2H: First leg ended 0-2 to Koper, confirming their defensive and attacking superiority in this tie.
Stakes: Koper need only avoid losing by 3+, giving them a massive psychological and tactical advantage to sit deep and absorb; NSI Runavik face an uphill task needing at least a 2-goal win away.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data beyond this tie — first leg ended NSI Runavik 0-2 Koper, demonstrating Koper's defensive solidity and clinical finishing against this opponent.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.