📊 Recent Form
Kortrijk
SK Beveren
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. SK Beveren edge it at 40% against 23% for the draw and 37% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have SK Beveren at 40% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 37% — a gap in our favour of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 56/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kortrijk Win | 13/8 2.60 | 36% | 37% | +1% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.45 | 27% | 23% | -4% |
| SK Beveren Win | 6/4 2.50 | 37% | 40% | +3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Kortrijk in relegation danger (P18/18)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Kortrijk in woeful form (10% win rate, 0.23 goals/game scored, LLLLLD streak); Beveren solid (50% win rate, 1.29 goals/game)
H2H: Beveren dominant — 5 wins in last 7, avg 3.3 goals/game, away_dominant pattern strongly favours visitors
Stakes: Kortrijk in last place (P18/18) with relegation threat but lacking attacking quality to convert pressure into goals
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Beveren have won 5 of the last 7 meetings including both most recent fixtures; away dominance is a clear pattern with Beveren scoring in every recent Kortrijk home encounter while Kortrijk have struggled to score in return
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.