📊 Recent Form
Kosovo
Andorra
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Kosovo a 89% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Kosovo at 89% where the consensus of 7 bookmakers has 79% — a gap in our favour of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 4 goals. Comfortably over 2.5 and above the average match — the model expects both defences to give something up.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 7 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kosovo Win Value | 1/5 1.19 | 79% | 89% | +10% |
| Draw | 5/1 6.25 | 15% | 7% | -8% |
| Andorra Win | 14/1 15.25 | 6% | 4% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Kosovo 100% win rate, avg 3.4 goals scored at home; Andorra avg 0.62 goals scored, 0.7 conceded overall
H2H: Kosovo 1W 1D in last 2, including a 3-0 away win; no Andorra wins recorded
Stakes: Friendly match but Kosovo playing at home with momentum and full squad; Andorra limited attacking threat
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Kosovo beat Andorra 3-0 in Oct 2023 and drew 1-1 at home in Mar 2023; Kosovo hold the edge and the 3-0 away win suggests an even larger home margin is plausible.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.