📊 Recent Form
Kyrgyzstan
Palestine
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts a draw at 49%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 49% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have a draw at 49% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 32% — a gap in our favour of 17 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrgyzstan Win | 7/4 2.81 | 33% | 28% | -5% |
| Draw Value | 2/1 2.98 | 32% | 49% | +17% |
| Palestine Win | 13/8 2.64 | 35% | 23% | -12% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Kyrgyzstan winless in last 3 (LLD), Palestine inconsistent (LDDWDLLWLL) but defensively tighter away
H2H: 2 draws and 1 win each in last 4 meetings, avg 2 goals/game, very draw-prone
Stakes: Friendly with nothing to play for — both teams mid-table in motivation, lean heavily toward draw
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 4 meetings show a highly balanced and draw-prone history: 2 draws, 1 Kyrgyzstan win, 1 Palestine win, with an average of exactly 2 goals per game — strongly supports a 1-1 outcome.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.