📊 Recent Form
Kyrgyzstan
Palestine
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts a draw at 48%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 48% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have a draw at 48% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 30% — a gap in our favour of 18 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrgyzstan Win | 6/4 2.50 | 37% | 29% | -8% |
| Draw Value | 2/1 3.06 | 30% | 48% | +18% |
| Palestine Win | 7/4 2.80 | 33% | 23% | -10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Kyrgyzstan winless in last 3 (LLD), low scoring avg 1.1; Palestine inconsistent (LDDWDLLWLL) but defensively compact at 0.68 goals scored avg
H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings ended as draws or 1-0, avg 2 goals/game, draw-prone pattern confirmed
Stakes: Friendly with nothing at stake for either side — both mid-table equivalents, draw motivation is neutral
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
3 of the last 4 H2H meetings have been draws or narrow 1-0 results, with an average of 2 goals per game — firmly draw-prone and low-scoring.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.