📊 Recent Form
Le Havre
Auxerre
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Le Havre at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 22% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Le Havre at 45% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 41% — a gap in our favour of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 53/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Auxerre came to Le Havre and turned in a composed away performance to win 3-1, running out comfortable victors in what looked like being a tight relegation scrap. Danny Namaso was the star turn, bagging a brace either side of the hour mark — first on 40 minutes with an assist from Kevin Danois, then again on 61 with Romain Faivre picking out the pass. Le Havre pulled one back through Rayan Fofana on 66, set up by Hakim Dongopandji, but Faivre wrapped things up for Auxerre on 80, receiving the ball from Namaso. By that point the game was already done.
Our model predicted a 1-0 Le Havre win, assigning Auxerre just a 33% chance of victory. That lean toward the home side didn't pan out — Auxerre's win probability was the shortest of three plausible outcomes, so this wasn't a catastrophic miss, but we clearly had it wrong on the night. Before kickoff we'd flagged both teams' defensive frailties and expected a cagey, low-scoring affair shaped by relegation nerves. What we got instead was a game where Auxerre's attack overran Le Havre's backline. The visitors' away record and Le Havre's home form — the kind of data that pushed us toward a tight scoreline — simply didn't hold up.
It's a clean lesson in why football doesn't always play to the script, even when the underlying shape of a match looks predictable on paper.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre Win | 5/4 2.31 | 41% | 45% | +4% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.41 | 28% | 22% | -6% |
| Auxerre Win | 2/1 3.10 | 31% | 33% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Le Havre in relegation danger (P18/18)
- 🆘 Auxerre in relegation danger (P16/18)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Ligue 1 history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Le Havre averaging 1.11 scored / 1.29 conceded at home (WDLL recent home run); Auxerre averaging 1.46 scored but 2.4 conceded overall, away record LLLW
H2H: Le Havre dominant at home — 4 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in last 8; avg 2.8 goals/game but recent meetings trending tighter (1-1, 0-1, 1-2)
Stakes: Both teams in relegation battle (18th vs 16th) — fear of losing outweighs desire to attack; expect conservative, structured play
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Le Havre have dominated this fixture at home — winning 4 of the last 8 meetings with 3 draws and only 1 Auxerre win. The most recent clash ended 1-1, and recent meetings have been tightly contested. Average of 2.8 goals per game historically, but trend is narrowing in recent seasons.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.