📊 Recent Form
Leeds
Crystal Palace
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. Leeds edge it at 43% against 28% for the draw and 29% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Leeds at 43% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 55% — a gap against us of 12 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 67/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds Win | 8/11 1.74 | 55% | 43% | -12% |
| Draw | 3/1 3.90 | 25% | 28% | +3% |
| Crystal Palace Win Value | 7/2 4.75 | 20% | 29% | +9% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Leeds chasing top-4 (P4)
- 🆘 Crystal Palace in relegation danger (P16, only 2 pt cushion)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Premier League history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Leeds strong at home (WDWW), avg 2.34 goals scored; Palace away form patchy (WLLWD), avg 2.31 scored but 1.54 conceded
H2H: Neutral dominance over 8 games, Leeds won 4-1 last home meeting, avg 2.4 goals/game
Stakes: Leeds chasing top-4 (high motivation); Crystal Palace in relegation danger but severely hampered by injuries and 2-day rest
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H is neutral over 8 meetings (3W-3D-2L for Leeds), but the last home Leeds fixture ended 4-1 in Dec 2025; average of 2.4 goals per game suggests moderate scoring is the norm between these sides.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.