Barcelona extended their dominance over Levante with a commanding 4-2 away victory, though the hosts mounted a spirited late comeback that made the final scoreline less comfortable than the match flow suggested. The visitors struck early through Xavi Espart in the fifth minute, assisted by Raphael Dias Belloli, then doubled their lead when Lamine Yamal finished from the same provider just fourteen minutes later. Yamal added a second from the penalty spot after the interval to put Barcelona firmly in control at 3-0. Levante pulled two goals back in quick succession through Iván Romero in the 79th minute and Roger Brugué in the 88th, briefly threatening an unlikely comeback, but Karim Adeyemi's late strike with an assist from Marc Bernal sealed the win in stoppage time.

Our model predicted a 1-3 scoreline with Barcelona favoured at 60% probability, so we got the result direction right but underestimated Barcelona's attacking output on the night. Before kickoff, the key factors pointed toward a Barcelona win: their historic away form, Levante's mid-table malaise and motivation gap, and a strong head-to-head record where Barcelona had won six of the last eight meetings often by comfortable margins. The early Barcelona dominance and rapid two-goal lead tracked with those expectations, though the late Levante goals suggested the visitors eased off slightly once the game was settled. It's a reminder that even the clearest pre-match edges don't always play out to their most likely scoreline—Barcelona got there in the end, but took a more winding route than we'd anticipated.