Levski Sofia edged out Kairat Almaty 1-0 in a tight UEFA Champions League knockout tie, with Serginho settling it in the dying moments. The goal came in the 90+2nd minute, set up by M. Soula, giving the designated home side a crucial win on the night and sending them through.

Our model had predicted a more open affair, forecasting a 3-1 scoreline with Levski Sofia favoured at 60% to win. The result direction was spot on, but the match unfolded far tighter than expected. Going in, the model had weighted both sides' attacking threat fairly high — Levski strong at home and Kairat in solid overall form, though the away side showed some vulnerability on the road — and expected a higher goal count. Instead, this proved to be a cagey knockout contest where one moment of quality, late in the game, made the difference. It's a reminder that even when you read the winner right, knockout football doesn't always play to the script in terms of goals. One-goal margins in elimination ties are common enough, but our model had leaned into the teams' recent scoring patterns and underestimated how defensively tight this particular matchup would be.

Levski progressed with a hard-fought performance, while Kairat's campaign ended in frustration. It wasn't the free-flowing encounter the pre-match data suggested, but sometimes that's just how these ties go — the stakes were maximum, concentration was high, and both teams were cagey until a late breakthrough settled it.